Turning data into direction
The Builders Merchants Building Index (BMBI), along with the BMF Forecast Report, are becoming must-read publications for the construction sector, the Government and other institutions.
Accurate and up-to-date data, together with the insights it affords, is a highly valuable commodity, and our statistical reports are among the benefits most appreciated by BMF members. Our goal is to make the industry we all work in the best it can be. By making these reports freely available, our members can access the data resources required for the success of their business.
The BMBI is considered the best proxy for Repair, Maintenance and Improvement (RMI) statistics because it is based on actual sales through builders’ merchants to builders and trades.
Mike Rigby, Managing Director of MRA Research, which produces the BMBI report, explains: “ In contrast to the BMBI, which is actual point of sales data from builders’ merchants covering over 88% of the market, data from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) is derived from a much smaller survey. Moreover, when it reports, less than half of the results may be in, and the figures are revised over 12 to 18 months as more data becomes available. Revisions vary; for example, we’ve seen a -2% movement initially reported by the ONS, gradually revised up to +2%, to match the figure BMBI reported 18 months earlier.”
The latest BMBI Report, covering Q2 2025, shows total market growth of +2.8% over the same period in 2024. It also uncovers several regional differences, with both the North East (+8.8%) and West Midlands (+6.3%) outperforming the total market, whereas activity in London (-1.2%) was considerably weaker. London is significantly more expensive than other regions, and a lack of consumer and business confidence seems to be impacting the capital more significantly than other areas of the UK. The North East, meanwhile, is benefitting from a pipeline of housing, commercial and infrastructure projects.
Forecast Report
Good data, research and insights improve the quality and timing of business decisions and marketing efforts. This is especially true when it comes to forecasting future conditions. The BMBI had proved its worth before the BMF introduced the Builders Merchants Industry Forecast Report in 2019.
The BMF Forecast Report draws on BMBI data to combine a comprehensive analysis of merchant market performance with an examination of key factors affecting builders’ merchants to project future sales for the current year and the next 12-18 months. The report’s precision is impressive. The Forecast was accurate to within 0.1 percentage points of the actual outcome in Q1 2025 and correct to within 0.4 percentage points in Q2 2025.
The BMF Forecast includes a variety of indicators, beyond the detailed BMBI analysis of sales volumes and prices. These include the latest details from GfK’s Consumer Confidence Barometer and S&P Global’s Purchasing Managers Index, as well as the Bank of England’s view on interest rates and other factors affecting construction sectors. The housing market and house prices are also considered, along with economic indicators such as inflation, GDP and the labour market.
In addition, each Forecast offers a unique insight into the current market and the prospects for the coming quarter through a series of interviews with senior personnel in both merchant and manufacturing member organisations.
The value of dependable data and insightful analysis cannot be overstated. As our sector faces new challenges and transformations, accurate statistics and forecasts will remain indispensable tools for those determined to shape a stronger future for their businesses.
Membership of the Builders Merchants Federation includes the BMBI and the BMF Forecast Report. To find out more visit www.bmf.org.uk, email info@bmf.org.uk or phone 02476 854980.
