Disappointing end to 2025 for P&H Merchants. Q4 like-for-like value sales up +0.7% year-on-year but volumes are down -3.3%
The latest Plumbing & Heating Merchant Index (PHMI) report, published in March, shows like-for-like Q4 2025 value sales, adjusted to remove the impact of trading days, were +0.7% higher than the same period in 2024. Like-for-like volume sales decreased by -3.3%.
With no difference in trading days, the unadjusted total value sales were also +0.7% higher, with volumes down -3.3% and prices up +4.1%.
Quarter-on-quarter, like-for-like value sales for Q4 were +11.8% higher than Q3. Like-for-like volume sales for October to December were up +2.9% compared to July to September. With four less trading days in the most recent period, unadjusted total value sales were +4.9% up, with volumes down -3.4% and prices up +8.6%.
December 2025’s like-for-like value sales were down -1.4% compared to December 2024. Like-for-like volumes decreased -6.3%. With one extra trading day in December 2025, the unadjusted value sales were up +4.4%, with volumes -0.7% lower and prices increasing +5.2%.
Month-on-month, December like-for-like value sales were -15.2% lower than November, with volume sales falling -18.6%. With two less trading days in December, unadjusted value sales were down -23.7%. Unadjusted volumes fell -26.8% while prices increased +4.2%.
January to December 2025 like-for-like value sales were up +2.8%, compared to 2024, however volume sales were -0.3% lower. With one less trading day in 2025, unadjusted total value sales were up +2.4%, with unadjusted volume down -0.7% and prices rising +3.0%.
The like-for-like PHMI Index for December 2025 was 126.7. With three less trading days compared to the Index base period, the unadjusted value Index was 110.3.
Mike Rigby, Managing Director of MRA Research which produces the BMBI report says: “The year 2025 started well but ended in disappointment with business and consumer spending paralysed by dire warnings about the Autumn Budget. In the event the Budget’s bark was worse than its bite, but delayed sales leave a hole. Poor weather also blighted building sites during the final weeks of the year and into 2026.
“The ONS’s latest construction output report recorded a disappointing end to the year for construction with Q4 output shrinking -2.1% compared to Q3. Private new housing (-3.6%) was the main negative contributor. The Construction Products Association duly downgraded both its forecast construction output for 2026 (from +2.8% to +1.7%) and its forecast for private housebuilding (from +4.0% to +1.5%). Private housing RMI was revised down to -1.0%.
“With unemployment climbing 5.2% climbing and inflation still rising +3.0% in the 12 months to January, as measured by the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), it’s not surprising that consumer confidence has taken a hit. The latest Consumer Confidence Index for February is down 3 points with the biggest declines in how people feel about their personal finances (-4 points for both the last and next 12 months). The Major Purchase Index, a barometer for discretionary spending on RMI projects, also fell 4 points.
“Before the recent US Israeli war on Iran, economists were forecasting a fall to the Bank of England’s target rate of +2% sometime this year and two more rate cuts. But as oil, gas, and energy prices take off again, and supplies including critical products like fertiliser are reduced, inflation is turning up again. How much depends on how widely war spreads and how long it lasts. If only Governments did what they promised! The UK Government promised growth but introduced a slew of anti-growth policies, while President Trump’s US Government promised peace and prosperity but is picking fights with friend and foe.”
The Plumbing & Heating Merchant Index (PHMI) is the first to analyse point of sales data collated from specialist plumbing & heating merchants with combined annual sales of £3bn, to chart their performance month-to-month.
Based on data from NIQ GfK’s Plumbing & Heating Merchant Panel, which represents over 70% of the market by value, the report provides reliable data and a platform and voice for the industry, as well as for leading plumbing & heating brands. It is produced by MRA Research for the Builders Merchants Federation. There is no overlap or double counting between PHMI and the Builders Merchants Building Index (BMBI) sales data.
Following feedback from national and some large regional merchants, MRA Research has made a few changes to the way the plumbing and heating merchants’ sales data is presented in the PHMI reports. More prominence is now being given to like-for-like sales metrics which, adjusted for trading day differences, give a better and more consistent measure of activity than unadjusted total value sales. Most merchants use both unadjusted sales values and like-for-like measures, adjusted for trading days, to give them an accurate steer on the market. There will be further small changes over the coming months to PHMI reporting, with further updates coming in due course.
To download the latest report, or learn more about becoming an Expert, speaking on behalf of your market, visit www.phmi.co.uk.
