Lost time is lost forever
Mention statistics and many people find their attention wandering, says Mike Rigby, CEO of MRA Research. But statistics matter because, for good or ill, they anchor the narratives people tell each other.
Office of National Statistics updates are normally tucked away at the bottom of the news, or the data is sprinkled in opinion pieces to make a case or support a story. A little goes a long way and rarely do statistics become the story. And through repetition, association and usage facts anchor opinion and become the mainstream narrative.
But on 1 September 2023, the ONS’ Gross Domestic Product revisions made page one headlines on most channels and newspapers. The UK had recovered much faster than expected from the pandemic, and Britain’s economy was two per cent bigger than previously thought. Two per cent may sound tiny, but believe me, it is not. It moves the dial, and from being a sad laggard behind most countries in Europe, Britain’s recovery was as strong as France and ahead of Germany.
Media commentators, politicians and economists were gobsmacked. Many were red faced as they scrambled to adjust their perspective while trying not to eat too many of their own words. It was like watching the small boy ask why the emperor had no clothes.
Looking back, readers will see that BMBI accurately reported the same strong builders’ merchant post-pandemic recovery in real time.
In the last few years economists, ministers and the media have repeated the story told by the statistics without interrogating it. Why would they, it was what most politicians and journalists believed? According to the narrative, Britain was the worst performing economy in the G7, and the UK regularly got a good kicking by commentators and others whose expectations were reinforced.
This corrosive narrative has been gospel for years, a dogma which colours what is acceptable comment and opinion in the media and social media. A handful of dissenting voices were treated as irrelevant oddballs and ignored.
But we should beware when narratives become consensus. Groupthink inhibits independent thinking, and we should remember that all economists and commentators missed the financial crash, other major turning points, and got the outcome of referendums and national elections wrong.
The real story for me is the damage this negative narrative has had on consumer confidence and the effect that has had on spending. If consumers tighten their belts expecting gloomy times, we get gloomy times.
And the harm it has done to business and Government investment sentiment must be incalculable, at a time when Britain should have been investing heavily in its future.
I do not blame the ONS, but I do blame those who like to talk down the country, our markets and future, because you cannot spend the same money twice. Lost time is lost forever.
This article was first published in the Builders Merchants News magazine.
