Churn, Churn, Churn!
“We voted in a new government, so must accept a few months’ synchronised disruption as new Ministers settle into the job,” says Mike Rigby of MRA Research. “But a government in constant churn sets limits to its achievements.”
In most senior jobs, it takes about a year to learn the structure and dynamics of a new market or sector, master the brief, and establish the relationships and alliances that help to get things done. Then a year or so to implement your initiatives, see results, and fine tune them, before moving on to the next job. The more senior the job, the longer you need. There are few quick fixes in government, so Ministers need three or more years to demonstrate their achievements.
What happens in practice?
Sarah Jones is the new construction minister. The new Housing Minister is Matthew Pennycook. She is the 16th Construction Minister in the last 10 years, averaging 9 months each. He is the 15th Housing Minister in the last 10 years, averaging 8 months each. If this astonishing churn makes you blink, it is not a new phenomenon. Over the last 20 years or more of Labour and Conservative governments, one or two Ministers have lasted a couple of years, but it averages out at under one a year. No wonder it is a struggle to get government to understand the problems and promote practical solutions.
Professor Noble Francis, economics director of the CPA, chronicles these changes. “This constant churn of construction (and housing) ministers leads to poor policy development and delivery given how complex construction is and the time needed for a minister to understand it fully. It also means government focuses more on a constant stream of PR announcements rather than actual delivery, so government says the right things but does not back it up. Plus, it means endless councils, taskforces, hubs, groups and workstreams; plus, endless reports, reviews, strategies, and playbooks with little actual improvement. Construction deserves better.”
Of course, as Rory Stewart records in his excellent memoir of 10 years in government, ‘Politics on the Edge’, this churn is not unique to construction. Government is in constant churn as Prime Ministers move Ministers around to incentivise supporters and keep others in check. Britain deserves better.
The news that this self-inflicted malaise has infected the civil service compounds the problem. Rising civil service staff turnover is triggering alarm that ‘‘Whitehall lacks sufficient stability to operate effectively.”
Civil servants who changed departments or left government rose to 12.7% in 2023-24 from 11.9% the previous year, according to The Cabinet Office. “This level of turnover prevents the accumulation of expertise and damages institutional memory,” says the Institute for Government think-tank. Recent poor performances by senior civil servants before parliamentary committees and public inquiries suggest that damage has already occurred.
A government in constant churn lives in the short term, but Britain’s big challenges require sustained long-term solutions. The new government must break this cycle of churn if it is to succeed.
As Financial Times columnist Robert Shrimsley said about Labour’s first few weeks in office: “the cycle of short-term decision making is hard to break. Parking long-term problems is often the parent of later crises.”
